Weather tracker: hurricane activity in Atlantic dips below predicted level

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 November, with activity peaking between August and October. The past seven years have seen above average activity – the 2021 season was the third most active on record – and the trend looked set to continue.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted 14 to 21 named storms for the 2022 season, with six to 10 becoming hurricanes, three to six of which would be major category events. But as the 2022 season enters its final month, it has so far fallen short of these expectations.

When Tropical Storm Alex developed in early June, it was the first time since 2014 that the first storm of the year occurred after the official season began. Eight weeks of summer passed with no activity, with August being storm-free for the first time since 1997. It was September before the first hurricane formed.

To date, there have been 13 storms. A more typical count by this point in the season would be in the high teens – in 2020, there had been 28. Of the 13 storms, seven became hurricanes, and just two strengthened enough to become a major event – though these two were significant.

Hurricane Fiona wreaked havoc in the Caribbean as a category 4 storm, then became one of the most northerly hurricanes on record, making landfall in Nova Scotia with category 2 winds. It was the strongest and most costly hurricane in Canada’s history.

Hurricane Ian fell just shy of category 5 status and brought widespread flooding to Florida, becoming one of the deadliest storms in the state’s history.

Despite NOAA repeating its expectations of an above-average season in its mid-season forecast, with a month remaining it seems increasingly unlikely that the 2022 season will match predictions. Below average sea surface temperatures, greater variation in wind speed at height and dry air pushing across from Africa have all contributed to the subdued activity.

However, 2022 is an interesting season. The recently developed Hurricane Martin has an unusual north-east trajectory that will result in it approaching the UK and Ireland as a weakened extra-tropical depression this weekend.

Meanwhile, South America faced extreme contrasts in temperatures this week. Temperatures widely soared into the mid-30s celsius for southern Argentina on Thursday, with some unofficial recordings of 36C across the Rio Negro province, northern Patagonia.

In stark contrast, further north across the continent, parts of Brazil recorded temperatures plummeting into the mid-teens celsius. Some places in the São Paulo region only scraped maximum temperatures of 16C on Thursday, 10C below the seasonal norm, all due to a strong cold front.