Rain across central China this week is expected to relieve the country’s worst heatwave on record, but weather agencies are now warning of potential floods, while analysts say the energy crisis exacerbated by the months-long drought is not over.
Almost half of China has been affected by the latest heatwave, the hottest since record-keeping began in 1961. Hundreds of temperature records have been broken, and the heat has exacerbated the effects of low rainfall, drying up rivers and reservoirs across the country.
Light to moderate showers have moved into central and southern China, and were expected to intensify this week, according to China’s meteorological agencies (CMA). It said moderate to heavy falls were expected from southern Gansu down to Yunnan and across the drought-stricken Sichuan basin, bringing a risk of flash floods. In Sichuan on Monday more than 110,000 people in Sichuan had been relocated to safer areas.
After a period of significantly lower-than-average rainfall, some areas would now see up to twice as much rain as usual, the agency said. The CMA said the rains would help replenish reservoirs, but it still maintained drought warnings.
High temperatures are expected to ease on Wednesday for areas in southern China.
The heatwave sparked huge demand for electricity as hundreds of millions of people turn to air conditioning, which in turn has led to major power shortages. Across affected cities and provinces, authorities suspended or rationed electricity supply to factories, shopping malls, high-rises, and public transport.
Li Xi, a resident of central Chongqing, told the Guardian that residents of his high-rise apartment block were able to use their air conditioning but areas outside the city and public spaces were rationed.
“Without AC it’s terrible at home … I just stay at home all day long and go out in the evening after sunset,” he said. “The Chongqin city takes some measures to save the power – the supermarket is only open from 4pm to 9pm … Even in the subway the elevator is turned off, and we have to take the stairs.”
The heat, combined with power and water shortages, had a debilitating impact on regional and farming areas, and on vulnerable groups including elderly people and those working outdoors.
Andrew Polk, an analyst with Trivium China, said the demand for electricity had overwhelmed provincial power grids, and warned it was “highly likely” the coming winter would see another regional power crunch.
Polk said the lack of water in the Yangtze river and dozens of tributaries, during what is supposed to be the wet season, had severely affected power supply in Sichuan – which draws 80% of its electricity from hydropower – and downstream regions.
Cooler temperatures would lower household demand for electricity and ease rationing of commercial and industrial power, but it was only temporary.
“Officials have had to uncork reservoirs to avert agricultural, river transport and ecological disasters,” he said.
“Chances are high that Sichuan will again run low on hydropower by year end – even if the heatwave ends immediately … Sichuan is now at such a water deficit that it would take a meteorological miracle to reach anything approaching normal levels for winter power production.”
Analysts have said centres such as Sichuan would probably have to boost reliance on energy from fossil fuel in the short term, until the development of renewable sources caught up. On Tuesday the official People’s Daily newspaper warned of the need for regions to prepare for increasing extreme weather events driven by global heating, including drought and floods.
Additional reporting by Xiaoqian Zhu