Australia’s ski season will start with no skiing, no snowboarding, no snow – and a drying El Niño may be to blame.
Due to a “lack of snow,” Thredbo Resort has closed its mountain to skiing and snowboarding this long weekend, a spokesperson said – just as it kicks off its official winter season.
The Bureau of Meteorology placed Australia on “El Niño alert” this week.
“If El Nino does develop, it brings an enhanced risk of a drier and warmer winter compared to normal,” senior BOM meteorologist, Angus Hines, said.
There is now a 70% chance of the climate system developing before the end of this year – roughly three times the normal chance for the first time since 2016.
There were several cold outbreaks in May, which brought below average temperatures and dustings of snow to Thredbo and alpine areas. But snow in May is not always a good indicator of the snow season to come, Hines said. Warm and rainy conditions in recent days have melted much of that snow away.
Many alpine regions had seen significant snowfall in late May last year, but Hines said it is not uncommon to have little snow in early June.
“Most years the alpine areas don’t begin to build their snow base until June and sometimes later.”
A brief surge of showers is forecast for Friday, which could bring a dusting of snow to areas above 1,400m, but “no significant snow is expected”. There is also no snow forecast through the long weekend.
From next Tuesday, the next frontal system will move overhead. “Although at this stage, that system doesn’t look like it will bring much or any snowfall,” Hines said.
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The long-term winter forecast is warmer and drier than average across the alpines, and much of Australia, though Hines said there will still be cold and snowy outbreaks from time to time through the winter months.
A Thredbo spokesperson has hope nonetheless: “There is promising snowfall and snowmaking conditions in the seven-day forecast.
“We can’t wait to deliver skiing and snowboarding as soon as conditions allow.”